Saturday, January 1, 2011

Pre-Chinese New Year rally !

Pre-Lunar or Chinese New Year rally on KLSE?

Are we going to see the rally this year? This question always pop-up whenever the year ended and Chinese New Year getting nearer. The rally is everybody's hope before Chinese New Year (CNY).

This year CNY falls on Feb,3 or first week of February. If the rally materialized, it is going to be happen around these two or three weeks.


My intention if the rally happen, will sell my holding. Usually market will not have much activities after CNY or the month of February.

In today's Starbiz, there was an article titled Pre-Lunar New Year rally on the cards, written by KM Lee.

Pre-Lunar New Year rally on the cards

There was no lead from the United States, as markets there were shut for Christmas celebrations but European shares ticked higher on selective buying amid optimism the December run would be extended, which witnessed the FTSE Euro-First 300-share Index chalking up 0.1% to 1,147.49 points the previous Friday.

Taking comfort from the latter performance, Bursa Malaysia kicked off on a steadier note, with the benchmark FBM Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) up 0.32 point at 1,511.90.

However, business was slow, as many people were already on vacation and those still in the market were not taking any chance after The People's Bank of China raised the lending rate by 25 basis points to 5.81% and lifted the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% over the weekend to fight inflation.

While most investors stayed on the sidelines, watching how global markets would react to the rate hike in China before making their next move, regional stock exchanges see-sawed throughout in directionless trade.

Taking the cue from them, the local bourse subsequently turned sideways, drifting between an intra-day high and low of 1,513.23 and 1,509.64 respectively, a tight four-point range before ending a shade higher, rising 0.14 point to 1,511.72 due to gains in select quality issues and it was clearly displayed on the scoreboard, with losers outnumbering winners by 414 to 305 on Monday.

Overnight Wall Street trimmed early losses to close marginally easier on resumption of trading after the long break and crude oil prices snapped the five-day winning streak, falling 51 cents to US$91 per barrel.

With regional bourses fluctuating within a narrow band in another directionless session, many people had expected the local bourse to consolidate the next day but surprisingly, the overall sentiment changed for the better on renewed bargain-hunting interest, as investors shrugged off a surprise weekend interest rate hike from China's central bank.

Blue chips, especially banking and plantation issues, were list toppers but elsewhere, second and lower liners were mostly lower on lack of support.

At the end of Tuesday's session, the key index added only 5.72 points to 1,517.44 due to limited support.

Thereafter, extended accumulation action dominated the floor, spurred by a rebound in overnight Dow and the resumption of a rally in crude oil prices. A rise in Asian stocks added to the upbeat note.

Hence, in brisk business, the local bourse advanced a further 6.90 points to 1,524.34 in mid-week before giving back 5.43 points to 1,518.91 amid profit-taking activity on Thursday, also the last trading day for the year.

Bursa Malaysia was closed for a public holiday on Friday.

Statistics: For the week, the principal index gained 7.33 points, or 0.5%, to 1,518.91 on Thursday, compared with 1,511.58 at the close on Dec 24.

Total turnover for the four-day week shrank to 3.624 billion units worth RM5.355bil, versus 5.747 billion shares valued at RM7.676bil traded during the regular previous week.

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